Mongolian Market Updates | July 21st

🌄 Good morning!

📬 We hope you had a wonderful Naadam celebration! In this issue, we have compiled the most important political, economic, and capital market news and events from the past 14 days.

🗞️ In this week’s issue:

• Copper Export Revenue Catches Up with Coal, Leading Mongolia’s Export Structure

• Thermal Power Plant III Accident and Restoration Progress

• CMM Market Update

• Market News

🟣Copper Export Revenue Catches Up with Coal, Leading Mongolia’s Export Structure

Key Highlights:

• Total foreign trade turnover reached $12.1 billion, marking a decrease of $1.2 billion compared to the same period last year

• The foreign trade balance stood at $1.1 billion, which is half the level of last year

• In the first half of the year, coal exports generated $2.6 billion, while copper concentrate exports brought in $2.4 billion

Export Structure Shifts

Coal Exports:

• Export volume: 5.7 million tons/month

• Export value: $359 million/month

• Compared to 2024: Volume decreased by 11%, and export value dropped sharply by 45%.

• Main reason: The fall in global coal prices and weakening demand from China have had a direct negative impact.

Gold Exports:

• Average price: $100,000/kg (versus $72,000 last year)

• Price trend: Gold prices have remained steadily high in 2025.

• Export revenue: If export volumes match those of 2024, an additional $250 million in revenue could be realized.

Market Trends & Risks

• Oyu Tolgoi project revenues are unlikely to increase significantly over previous levels, as noted by Bank of Mongolia’s B. Bayardavaa.

• In China’s copper market, more copper processing plants are being established, and smelters are reducing fees paid to sellers. As a result, China’s refined copper output is projected to grow by 5% this year.

Summary

In the first half of 2025, Mongolia’s export structure is gradually shifting from coal to copper and gold. Given external risks and changes in the Chinese market, it remains essential to diversify exports and effectively manage market risks. If copper and gold prices remain stable in the medium term, Mongolia’s economic growth outlook remains positive.

CMM Recommendations

1. Implement export diversification policies:

   Mongolia should increase exports of processed goods and other minerals beyond coal, copper, and gold. Diversification is key to maintaining economic stability.

2. Support technological innovation and attract investment:

   Backing domestic copper processing plants would enable the country to capture more added value.

3. Develop risk mitigation strategies:

   Reducing dependence on China and seeking new export markets is vital.

4. Steadily increase foreign currency reserves:

   Mongolia should use the favorable gold and copper prices to build up its foreign exchange reserves.

🟣Thermal Power Plant III Accident and Restoration Progress

On June 2, 2025, a major accident occurred at Thermal Power Plant III, resulting in a turbine explosion and the tragic death of one worker. The accident has highlighted significant risks in the energy sector, indicating the potential for a challenging year ahead.

Following the incident, a two-stage restoration and reconstruction plan was developed. Demolition and rebuilding of the damaged section will begin on July 25, with the goal of restarting operations by November 1.

In addition, the Government of Mongolia has planned to invest a total of ₮10 trillion in 5 major energy projects (out of 14 mega projects) by 2032.

To prevent energy shortages and ensure self-sufficiency, the National Committee for Energy Reform noted that an additional $1.5–2 billion in funding is needed.

🟣 CMM Market Update

🌍ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) – Corporate Sustainability Reports

Of the 163 companies listed on the Mongolian Stock Exchange, 28 have disclosed ESG reports and are actively implementing sustainability initiatives. These initiatives help reduce environmental impact, improve sustainability ratings, and boost investor confidence.

🏦 Savings Certificate Registration Regulation Approved

On July 7, the Financial Regulatory Commission approved the “Savings Certificate Registration Regulation” of the Mongolian Stock Exchange. This regulation enables bank-issued savings certificates to be traded as securities, creating new investment opportunities for both domestic and foreign investors in high-yield, secure financial products.

With this regulation, banks can now raise long-term funding, while investors can trade savings certificates on the secondary market without sacrificing interest income. This is expected to improve both the liquidity and efficiency of the capital market.

🏛️ Market News

🏛️ Three Domestic Government Securities (GS) to Be Traded in July

Domestic GS 1:

The primary market trading of the domestic GS held on July 9 was successfully completed, and secondary market trading has now commenced. The total value of bids submitted in the primary market reached ₮12.8 billion, which was 2.56 times the amount offered.

This government coupon bond has a 3-year maturity, pays coupons semi-annually, and has a total issue size of ₮5 billion. As a result of the primary auction, the weighted average coupon rate was set at 10.59%. Secondary market trading for this security officially began on July 18.

Domestic GS 2 & 3:

Primary market trading will take place at 10:00 am on July 23, 2025. On July 18, the government registered 2 securities in the domestic market with the Mongolian Stock Exchange. Two types of bonds will be offered: a discounted bond (with a maturity of approximately one year) and a 5-year coupon bond. A total of ₮9.0 billion is planned to be raised from these domestic GS through public offerings.

📈[MSE:BRC] Barilga Corporation Plans to Convert to LLC

Barilga Corporation JSC will reconvene its shareholders on August 11 to discuss conversion to a limited liability company (LLC), approval of a new charter, and share buyback prices. With 93.6% of shares concentrated among a few holders, the company aims to create a more flexible shareholder structure.

📈 [MSE:ABH] Proposal to Acquire 100% of Ar Bayankhangai JSC

Smart Deal LLC has proposed to acquire 100% of Ar Bayankhangai JSC, which is listed on the MSE’s third board, at ₮816.24 per share—above the market price of ₮770. The purpose of the acquisition is to expand operations of its subsidiary, Smart Store LLC.

🟣Mark Your Calendars: CMM’s 2025 Signature Events!

We are excited to announce the dates for our flagship gatherings this year! Join us for the “Mining Week & MinePro 2025” in Ulaanbaatar (September 11–13), the “Mongolia Investment Forum: London” (October 14), and the “Mongolia Investment Forum: Singapore” (November 20). Each event brings together top industry leaders, investors, and innovators to explore new opportunities and drive growth in Mongolia’s capital markets. Stay tuned for more details — these are events you won’t want to miss!

🟣CMM Services

Capital Markets Mongolia (CMM) advises publicly listed companies on effectively engaging with investors, defining optimal strategies for IPOs and bond issuances, and participating in the capital market in a reputable and efficient manner.